US approach towards Europes last dictatorship

Author: Jared Fallon

Belarus’ official title is the “Republic of Belarus”, however the CIA Worldfactbook displays a note unique only to this small Eastern European country: “republic in name, although in fact a dictatorship.” Belarus received its independence from the Soviet Union on August 25, 1991, but since then has retained…cozy, relations with Russia. This little country of nearly 10 million is currently being squeezed into a situation that will cause it to turn towards other powers in the attempt of keeping surprisingly high growth rates. How will the US react to an increasingly frustrated country that’s slowly drifting away from Moscow?

Background

Belarus’s first 4 years of independence can be characterized by swift, broad reforms looking to shape a new country based on a defeated population. Like so many in Eastern Europe, the average person was looking to have more “Western concerns”, rather than worrying over communism, state-oriented supply targets, and bread line-type difficulties. Yet in 1994 President (dictator) Alexander Lukashenko reverted back to the old days of Belarus with the time-tested promise of economic recovery. Since then, widespread government price setting, management and regulation has taken place, and in more recent years, private company acquirement has been seen across the board. The interesting factor is that despite economic reversions back to time’s past, Belarusians have seen GDP growth rates as high as 7%, although high inflation has never-the-less been prominent. How is this possible? One answer: Putin’s Russia.

Belarus has been fortunate enough to be on the receiving end of Russian generosity, marked with heavily discounted natural resources and the re-exportation of Russian petro at significantly higher market prices. For a small country still moving towards increased government control, Belarus has had it made. However, in recent times Russia has been seen attempting an…unique approach. While still maintaining the need for NATO-countering missile defense build-up partnerships with Belarus, Russia has decided to require that 85% of Belarusian profits on re-exported oil must be shared with the Kremlin. To make matters worse, by 2011 the Belarusians will need to get used to paying natural gas prices at the world market cost, an increase of over 50%. With the two largest drivers of the ill foreign investment-receiving Belarus economy, where does Belarus have left to turn?

Recent European developments

As overall Russian momentum has decreased within the country, the European Union has been moving in. A decision in August of 2008 declared the EU-imposed travel ban on Belarusian public officials (including the president himself) has officially been lifted – a significant development for which President Lukashenko expectedly expressed strong support of. “All impediments to dialogue have been lifted. The main thing is we can now talk without an iron curtain.” Many analysts predict the recent move with be more than conductive to the opening of the Republic of Belarus out of economic desperation, matched with the newfound government official encouragement. How will the US react?

Pending proposals: the United State’s approach

The US will take any position that will allow itself to gain more former Soviet Union members on its side- even at a time when financial markets have taken a downturn. Former Russian President and current Prime Minister (czar) Vladimir Putin was given the title of the “prime minister of the Russian-Belarus alliance” as of May 2008, matched with clear developments that Putin has no intention of decreasing influence within the region. In terms of foreign policy approach, paired with decreasing European sway (NATO vs. EU), any actions taken on the part of Putin are largely viewed as an East-West conflict, reflecting attitudes as old Cold War era. To view the 6 pending Federal legislation, follow this link.

Highlights of the proposals are largely shaped by the US’ stance on the treatment of ethnic minorities of Belarus. Mark Kirk’s H.R.5152 aims to authorize assistance for such groups in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus in the attempt to promote democracy and approach aspirations all too frequently ignored by the former Stalin state, quickly turning a cold shoulder or merely claiming ignorance for the atrocities that displaced millions of people. Overall, the bill is shallow and ill-conceived, allowing only 3 pages of explanation to throw $125 million dollars to a problem with very little restrictions or specific approach. The saving grace for H.R.5152 is found on page 2, allowing $25 million specifically for national broadcasting of the proposed foreign aid benefits to the countries’ citizens. Belarusians’ state-dictated broadcasting program remains one of the largest divisions for US-Belarus relations.

Lukashenko’s state-ran Belarusian broadcasting HQ, pictured left

The last proposal truly worth viewing is H.R.571 – a broad, sweeping plan to increase tariffs on products of any US-recognized non-market economy – ranging from Laos to North Korea to Belarus – a proposal that will most likely see more individual measures taken with the recent democrat’s sweep. As with Iran, Obama largely believes that the only two options that should be taken when dealing with seemingly difficult regimes is to greatly increase dialogue and to impose sanctions or tariffs on countries, in an old-fashioned attempt to squeeze desired action among the general public.

The situation with Belarus is quickly developing and should prove to have more desperate measures taken on behalf of the Belarusian government in the attempt of retaining any measure of economic growth. Europe will most likely see the widespread opening of markets with the “Republic”, and sooner or later Belarus will have to find a much more effective way to attractive foreign (not Russian) investment within the country. For Europe’s last dictatorship, decisions will have to be made between Prime Minister Putin’s sway and Western ideologies. As Russia continues to flex its muscles around the world, Belarus will prove to be a very significant example to the world as to the expected strength of Moscow vs. the US. The messages that will be sent to the world will most likely prove to be as impactful as the United State’s efforts in turning former Axis allies (Germany and Japan) into democracy experiments – strengthening America’s sway around the world. Belarus is quickly approaching a marked time of needed reform, it will prove to be most interesting to track what will happen to Europe’s last dictatorship.

Belarus’ geographic centralization allows the country of 10 million to retain particular strategic advantages - many times to Russia’s benefit